NATO vs the Chinese Dragon

How would Chinese support for Russia, and Finland’s NATO membership, affect the Russia-Ukraine war?

The world witnessed a significant geopolitical move by China to try to alter the course of the Russian invasion of Ukraine after more than a year of incessant fighting. President of the People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping met his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Moscow from March 20 to 23 of this year to discuss a possible diplomatic negotiation to end the war. Xi’s proposed peace plan includes an agreement by all the stakeholders in the war to not station nuclear weapons on foreign soil (Ignatius 2023) (MFAPRC 2023). Following the meeting, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that he would be deploying tactical nuclear weapons to its beleaguered ally Belarus, which many in Western military circles believe was a first step towards a targeted tactical nuclear attack on highly contested cities in Ukraine (Borger 2023). Xi’s visit to Moscow last month and the subsequent 4-day visit to Russia by China’s defence minister Li Shangfu along with Finland’s accession as NATO’s 31st member (John 2023) seems to have shifted the geopolitical balance in the Russia-Ukraine War (McCarthy 2023).

China’s 12-point peace plan proposes negotiations and a diplomatic resolution to the Russia-Ukrainian war. Some of the main points include abandoning the Cold War mentality, respecting sovereignty and reducing strategic risks by not using nuclear weapons and committing to nuclear non-proliferation (MFAPRC 2023). During the meeting between Xi and Putin, Xi expressed his support regarding the Chinese peace plan and hoped that the West would follow through with the plan. It is of utmost importance to learn about the general geopolitical trend. China is coming to the table having mediated a successful diplomatic rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia and has high hopes for their plan’s success in the Russia-Ukraine war (Ignatius 2023). When it comes to stationing nuclear weapons in Belarus, the Russian argument justifying their move is simple, the US has its nuclear weapons stationed in France, Germany and the UK so Russia is making a reciprocal move to bolster its ally Belarus (Borger 2023).

All meetings between the Chinese defence minister, the Chinese president and their Russian counterparts were seen by the West as moves to dominate a weakened Russia. But looking at the meetings, it seems that apart from collaboration through Russian weapons purchases and strengthening their economic relationship, Russia and China are playing the long game. Firstly, Russia is not able to find a reliable trade partner and a nation able and willing to support Russian oil and gas activities in the Arctic Ocean Region and Siberia other than China. Chinese President Xi Jinping reiterated China’s unwavering support for Russia in expanding the Yamal and Arctic Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) projects in the Russian Arctic Circle. In addition to the LNG projects, China also pledged to expand the role of the Chinese army in the Arctic in the name of Search and Rescue (SAR) operations alongside the Russian Navy. After the much-celebrated success of the Yamal project apparent in 2020, Novatec, a Russian oil and gas firm, aims to start a new LNG plant named Arctic-2 They intend to start one of three production lines by the end of 2023 with a 30% stake in Chinese State-owned enterprises. This plethora of renewed and/or newly signed energy deals on the sidelines of Xi’s visit to Russia played a major role in setting up China as Russia’s trusted energy purchaser as well as a financier and military partner (Staalesen 2023). Secondly, China and Russia announced their joint commitment to using the Chinese Yuan as their official currency for bilateral trade. This news comes as the US blocked Russia from the US Dollar led financial exchange system called SWIFT after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Such weaponization of the dollar by the US, starting with the economic sanctions on Iran, has led countries to develop contingencies. This news comes after Russia and India announced they will continue their bilateral trade in a non-dollar currency. It is also interesting to note that Russia, India and China comprise a majority of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) organisation. It is important to note, the share of USD as the global reserve currency has declined from 70 to 60 percent over the last decade and the war in Ukraine and subsequent weaponization of the USD has forced US allies like Saudi Arabia to plan for contingencies (Zakaria 2023).

At the same time, in a stunning reversal of its decades-long neutrality, Finland applied to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in July 2022. On April 4th, 2023, Finland officially joined NATO as its 31st member. In reality, this move by Finland defeats the main purpose of the Ukrainian invasion by Russia and President Putin’s rationale for it. Russia invaded Ukraine because Ukraine wanted to join NATO and other Western institutions like the European Union. Contrary to Russian expectations, its invasion of Ukraine united NATO and countries like Finland and Sweden applied to join. As a result, Russia’s border with NATO doubled. The addition of Finland would be extremely beneficial to NATO as it would now be able to station its fighter jets and other military hardware on Finnish soil. It is estimated that Finland has more artillery than Germany, Poland, Norway and Sweden combined. The addition of Finland also provides guaranteed security to Finland and NATO receives some of the best Arctic troops which will be crucial for the security of the alliance’s Northern flank. Therefore, it would be safe to assume that the war in Ukraine backfired for Russia as it unified the member countries of the North Atlantic Alliance and increased NATO’s borders with Russia (John 2023).

In conclusion, I have aimed to dissect major geopolitical events related to the Ukraine war as it is of extreme importance to analyze the global geopolitical shifts affecting the micro-level policy and decisions made on the battlefield. Russia’s decision to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus and China’s possible military aid to Russia play a significant role in policy decision-making by the Western and Ukrainian leaders. On the other hand, Finland’s ascension to NATO marks a step towards a safer Europe and the world as an extension. Overall, Finland will be crucial in NATO’s strategic competition with the Sino-Russian bloc in the Arctic.

References

Borger, Julian. 2023. “Putin's timeline for storing tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus is hard to believe.” The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/26/vladimir-putin-timeline-storing-tactical-nuclear-weapons-in-belarus-is-hard-to-believe.

Ignatius, David. 2023. “Opinion | Xi’s visit to Putin should worry the West.” The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/03/21/xi-putin-summit-alliance-danger/.

John, Tara. 2023. “Finland joins NATO, doubling military alliance's border with Russia in a blow for Putin.” CNN. https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/04/europe/finland-joins-nato-intl/index.html.

McCarthy, Simone. 2023. “US-sanctioned Chinese defence minister meets Putin in Moscow, hails military ties.” CNN. https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/16/china/china-defense-minister-visit-russia-vladimir-putin-li-shangfu-intl-hnk/index.html.

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China. 2023. China's Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis. https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202302/t20230224_11030713.html.

Staalesen, Atle. 2023. “Arctic shipping and energy on Putin's agenda with Xi Jinping.” The Independent Barents Observer |. https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/industry-and-energy/2023/03/arctic-energy-agenda-xi-meets-russian-pm-mishustin.

Zakaria, Fareed. 2023. “Opinion | The dollar is our superpower, and Russia and China are threatening it.” The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/03/24/us-dollar-strength-russia-china/.